The WIAA state girls basketball tournament begins tonight with 138 first round games. Almost half (61) of these games are in division 5. NETS predicts an upset in 16 of these 138 games.
The following list includes all games where NETS predicts the better seed to lose. The teams' seeds and NETS ratings are included.
Home court advantage was worth about 10 NETS points in the regular season. This effect has been accounted for in the upset probabilities.
Upsets to Expect (ordered by probability):
Division 3 - Sectional 4 - Racine St. Catherine's (#9, 952) @ Cristo Rey Jesuit (#8, 761) - 96.6%
Division 2 - Sectional 2 - New Berlin West (#10, 1060) @ Milwaukee Vincent (#7, 886) - 95.4%
Division 3 - Sectional 1 - Adams-Friendship (#9, 953) @ Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau (#8, 804) - 92.8%
Division 5 - Sectional 3 - Barneveld (#9, 1067) @ De Soto (#8, 951) - 87.6%
Division 5 - Sectional 1 - Gilman (#9, 933) @ Lake Holcombe (#8, 838) - 82.7%
Division 5 - Sectional 4 - Heritage Christian (#9, 973) @ Faith Christian (#8, 884) - 81.1%
Division 4 - Sectional 1 - Spencer (#10, 916) @ Chetek-Weyerhaeuser (#7, 838) - 77.8%
Division 5 - Sectional 4 - Central Wisconsin Christian (#9, 1008) @ Fall River (#8, 935) - 76.1%
Division 5 - Sectional 2 - Rib Lake (#9, 948) @ Three Lakes/Phelps (#8, 882) - 73.7%
Division 5 - Sectional 3 - Wonewoc-Center (#9, 949) @ Brookwood (#8, 889) - 71.5%
Division 5 - Sectional 4 - Catholic Central (#10, 972) @ Kenosha Christian Life (#7, 916) - 70.0%
Division 4 - Sectional 3 - Lancaster (#9, 1015) @ Iowa-Grant (#8, 960) - 69.6%
Division 3 - Sectional 3 - Lodi (#9, 1028) @ East Troy (#8, 976) - 68.4%
Division 3 - Sectional 1 - Bloomer (#9, 1081) @ Northwestern (#8, 1042) - 63.0%
Division 5 - Sectional 2 - Newman Catholic (#10, 931) @ Edgar (#7, 900) - 59.6%
Division 4 - Sectional 2 - Southern Door (#10, 918) @ New Holstein (#7, 907) - 50.5%
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